Percentage Error Absolute Error
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may be challenged and removed. (December 2009) (Learn how and when to remove this template message) The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), also known as mean absolute absolute error formula percentage deviation (MAPD), is a measure of prediction accuracy of a
Relative Error
forecasting method in statistics, for example in trend estimation. It usually expresses accuracy as a percentage, and is percentage error definition defined by the formula: M = 100 n ∑ t = 1 n | A t − F t A t | , {\displaystyle {\mbox{M}}={\frac {100}{n}}\sum _{t=1}^{n}\left|{\frac {A_{t}-F_{t}}{A_{t}}}\right|,} where
Relative Error Formula
At is the actual value and Ft is the forecast value. The difference between At and Ft is divided by the Actual value At again. The absolute value in this calculation is summed for every forecasted point in time and divided by the number of fitted pointsn. Multiplying by 100 makes it a percentage error. Although the concept of absolute error calculator MAPE sounds very simple and convincing, it has major drawbacks in practical application [1] It cannot be used if there are zero values (which sometimes happens for example in demand data) because there would be a division by zero. For forecasts which are too low the percentage error cannot exceed 100%, but for forecasts which are too high there is no upper limit to the percentage error. When MAPE is used to compare the accuracy of prediction methods it is biased in that it will systematically select a method whose forecasts are too low. This little-known but serious issue can be overcome by using an accuracy measure based on the ratio of the predicted to actual value (called the Accuracy Ratio), this approach leads to superior statistical properties and leads to predictions which can be interpreted in terms of the geometric mean.[1] Contents 1 Alternative MAPE definitions 2 Issues 3 See also 4 External links 5 References Alternative MAPE definitions[edit] Problems can occur when calculating the MAPE value with a series of small de
of Accuracy Accuracy depends on the instrument you are measuring with. But as a general rule: The degree of accuracy is half a unit each side of the unit of measure Examples: When your instrument measures in "1"s then any value between 6½ and 7½ is measured
Relative Error Calculator
as "7" When your instrument measures in "2"s then any value between 7 and 9 is
Relative Error Definition
measured as "8" Plus or Minus We can show the error using the "Plus or Minus" sign: ± When the value could be between 6½ absolute error definition and 7½ 7 ±0.5 The error is ±0.5 When the value could be between 7 and 9 8 ±1 The error is ±1 Example: a fence is measured as 12.5 meters long, accurate to 0.1 of a meter Accurate to https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_absolute_percentage_error 0.1 m means it could be up to 0.05 m either way: Length = 12.5 ±0.05 m So it could really be anywhere between 12.45 m and 12.55 m long. Absolute, Relative and Percentage Error The Absolute Error is the difference between the actual and measured value But ... when measuring we don't know the actual value! So we use the maximum possible error. In the example above the Absolute Error is 0.05 m What happened to the ± ... ? Well, we https://www.mathsisfun.com/measure/error-measurement.html just want the size (the absolute value) of the difference. The Relative Error is the Absolute Error divided by the actual measurement. We don't know the actual measurement, so the best we can do is use the measured value: Relative Error = Absolute Error Measured Value The Percentage Error is the Relative Error shown as a percentage (see Percentage Error). Let us see them in an example: Example: fence (continued) Length = 12.5 ±0.05 m So: Absolute Error = 0.05 m And: Relative Error = 0.05 m = 0.004 12.5 m And: Percentage Error = 0.4% More examples: Example: The thermometer measures to the nearest 2 degrees. The temperature was measured as 38° C The temperature could be up to 1° either side of 38° (i.e. between 37° and 39°) Temperature = 38 ±1° So: Absolute Error = 1° And: Relative Error = 1° = 0.0263... 38° And: Percentage Error = 2.63...% Example: You measure the plant to be 80 cm high (to the nearest cm) This means you could be up to 0.5 cm wrong (the plant could be between 79.5 and 80.5 cm high) Height = 80 ±0.5 cm So: Absolute Error = 0.5 cm And: Relative Error = 0.5 cm = 0.00625 80 cm And: Percentage Error = 0.625% Area When working out areas you need to think about both the width and length ... they could both be the smallest possible measure, or both
may be challenged and removed. (December 2009) (Learn how and when to remove this template message) The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), also known as mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD), is a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting method in statistics, for example https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_absolute_percentage_error in trend estimation. It usually expresses accuracy as a percentage, and is defined by the http://www.owlnet.rice.edu/~labgroup/pdf/Error_analysis.htm formula: M = 100 n ∑ t = 1 n | A t − F t A t | , {\displaystyle {\mbox{M}}={\frac {100}{n}}\sum _{t=1}^{n}\left|{\frac {A_{t}-F_{t}}{A_{t}}}\right|,} where At is the actual value and Ft is the forecast value. The difference between At and Ft is divided by the Actual value At again. The absolute value in this calculation is summed for absolute error every forecasted point in time and divided by the number of fitted pointsn. Multiplying by 100 makes it a percentage error. Although the concept of MAPE sounds very simple and convincing, it has major drawbacks in practical application [1] It cannot be used if there are zero values (which sometimes happens for example in demand data) because there would be a division by zero. For forecasts which are too low the percentage error cannot exceed 100%, percentage error absolute but for forecasts which are too high there is no upper limit to the percentage error. When MAPE is used to compare the accuracy of prediction methods it is biased in that it will systematically select a method whose forecasts are too low. This little-known but serious issue can be overcome by using an accuracy measure based on the ratio of the predicted to actual value (called the Accuracy Ratio), this approach leads to superior statistical properties and leads to predictions which can be interpreted in terms of the geometric mean.[1] Contents 1 Alternative MAPE definitions 2 Issues 3 See also 4 External links 5 References Alternative MAPE definitions[edit] Problems can occur when calculating the MAPE value with a series of small denominators. A singularity problem of the form 'one divided by zero' and/or the creation of very large changes in the Absolute Percentage Error, caused by a small deviation in error, can occur. As an alternative, each actual value (At) of the series in the original formula can be replaced by the average of all actual values (Āt) of that series. This alternative is still being used for measuring the performance of models that forecast spot electricity prices.[2] Note that this is the same as dividing the sum of absolute differences by the sum of actual values, and is sometimes referred to as WAPE. Issues[edit]
just how much the measured value is likely to deviate from the unknown, true, value of the quantity. The art of estimating these deviations should probably be called uncertainty analysis, but for historical reasons is referred to as error analysis. This document contains brief discussions about how errors are reported, the kinds of errors that can occur, how to estimate random errors, and how to carry error estimates into calculated results. We are not, and will not be, concerned with the “percent error” exercises common in high school, where the student is content with calculating the deviation from some allegedly authoritative number. Significant figures Whenever you make a measurement, the number of meaningful digits that you write down implies the error in the measurement. For example if you say that the length of an object is 0.428 m, you imply an uncertainty of about 0.001 m. To record this measurement as either 0.4 or 0.42819667 would imply that you only know it to 0.1 m in the first case or to 0.00000001 m in the second. You should only report as many significant figures as are consistent with the estimated error. The quantity 0.428 m is said to have three significant figures, that is, three digits that make sense in terms of the measurement. Notice that this has nothing to do with the "number of decimal places". The same measurement in centimeters would be 42.8 cm and still be a three significant figure number. The accepted convention is that only one uncertain digit is to be reported for a measurement. In the example if the estimated error is 0.02 m you would report a result of 0.43 ± 0.02 m, not 0.428 ± 0.02 m. Students frequently are confused about when to count a zero as a significant figure. The rule is: If the zero has a non-zero digit anywhere to its left, then the zero is significant, otherwise it is not. For example 5.00 has 3 significant figures; the number 0.0005 has only one significant figure, and 1.0005 has 5 significant figures. A number like 300 is not well defined. Rather one should write 3 x 102, one significant figure, or 3.00 x 102, 3 significant figures. Absolute and relative errors The absolute error in a measured quantity is the uncertainty in the quantity and has the same units as the quantity itself. For example if you know a length is 0.428 m ± 0.002 m, the