Conjunction Error Example
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am particularly fond of this example [the Linda problem] because I know that the [conjoint] statement is least probable, yet a little define conjunction fallacy homunculus in my head continues to jump up and down, shouting conjunction fallacy psychology example at me—“but she can’t just be a bank teller; read the description.” Stephen J. Gould[1] The most
Memory Conjunction Error
often-cited example of this fallacy originated with Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman:[2][3] Linda is 31 years old, single, outspoken, and very bright. She majored in philosophy. As a
Conjunctive Events
student, she was deeply concerned with issues of discrimination and social justice, and also participated in anti-nuclear demonstrations. Which is more probable? Linda is a bank teller. Linda is a bank teller and is active in the feminist movement. The majority of those asked chose option 2. However, the probability of two events occurring together (in "conjunction") conjunction fallacy linda is always less than or equal to the probability of either one occurring alone—formally, for two events A and B this inequality could be written as Pr ( A ∧ B ) ≤ Pr ( A ) {\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(A)} and Pr ( A ∧ B ) ≤ Pr ( B ) {\displaystyle \Pr(A\land B)\leq \Pr(B)} . For example, even choosing a very low probability of Linda being a bank teller, say Pr(Linda is a bank teller) = 0.05 and a high probability that she would be a feminist, say Pr(Linda is a feminist) = 0.95, then, assuming independence, Pr(Linda is a bank teller and Linda is a feminist)= 0.05×0.95 or0.0475, lower than Pr(Linda is a bank teller). Tversky and Kahneman argue that most people get this problem wrong because they use a heuristic (an easily calculated procedure) called representativeness to make this kind of judgment: Option 2 seems more "representative" of Linda based on the description of her, even though it is clearly mathematically less likely.[3
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Disjunction Fallacy
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To The Fallacies: Ar–Co The Fallacies: Co–Ex The Fallacies: Fa–Hy The Fallacies: If–Mu The Fallacies: Na–Ri The Fallacies: Sc–Wi Fallacies https://www.logicallyfallacious.com/tools/lp/Bo/LogicalFallacies/72/Conjunction-Fallacy Buy Book Register Login Quickly register to comment, Ask questions, and/or keep up to date on new fallacies. Register! one moment please...
Book Contents Preface Introduction B-List Fallacies The Fallacies: Ac–An Accident Fallacy Ad Fidentia Ad Hoc Rescue Ad Hominem (Abusive) Ad Hominem (Circumstantial) Ad Hominem (Guilt by Association) Ad conjunction fallacy Hominem (Tu quoque) Affirmative Conclusion from a Negative Premise Affirming a Disjunct Affirming the Consequent Alleged Certainty Alternative Advance Ambiguity Fallacy Anonymous Authority The Fallacies: Appeal To Appeal to Accomplishment Appeal to Anger Appeal to Authority Appeal to Celebrity Appeal to Coincidence Appeal to Common Belief Appeal to Common Folk Appeal to conjunction error example Consequences Appeal to Definition* Appeal to Desperation Appeal to Emotion Appeal to Extremes Appeal to Faith Appeal to Fear Appeal to Flattery Appeal to Force Appeal to Heaven Appeal to Nature Appeal to Normality* Appeal to Novelty Appeal to Pity Appeal to Popularity Appeal to Possibility Appeal to Ridicule Appeal to the Moon Appeal to Tradition The Fallacies: Ar–Co Argument by Emotive Language Argument by Fast Talking Argument by Gibberish Argument by Personal Charm Argument by Repetition Argument from Age Argument from Fallacy Argument from Hearsay Argument from Ignorance Argument from Silence Argument of the Beard Argument to Moderation Argument to the Purse Avoiding the Issue Base Rate Fallacy Begging the Question Biased Sample Fallacy Blind Authority Fallacy Broken Window Fallacy Causal Reductionism Cherry Picking Circular Reasoning The Fallacies: Co–Ex Commutation of Conditionals Complex Question Fallacy Conflicting Conditions Confusing an Explanation with an Excuse Conjunction Fallacy Conspiracy Theory Definist Fallacy Denying a Conjunc