Article Margin Of Error
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Polls | 2 comments Presidential Polling's Margin for Error by Rebecca Goldin | Oct 14, 2015 | Margin of error, confidence interval article Polls | 2 comments Polls are finding Donald Trump ahead—way ahead—of other margin of error examples candidates running for the Republican nomination for presidency. Based on a recent Pew Research Center poll, CNN
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practically declared victory for him, noting he got 25 percent of the votes in the survey. The Daily News wrote off Jeb Bush—pointing to his 4 percent support
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rate. Ben Carson came in at 16 percent; Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio won 8 percent. Another poll conducted in October by MSNBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist, found Donald Trump has the support of 21 percent of the participating Republicans in New Hampshire– down from 28 percent of respondents in September. Fiorina comes in second, with 16 percent how to find margin of error support, up from 6 percent a month ago. The same organization found 24 percent support for Trump in Iowa in October, down from 29 percent last month. Ben Carson, second in the lead in Iowa in this poll, captures 19 percent of the support, down from 22 percent last month. Yet both polls had fewer than 500 participants, resulting in high margins of error (about 5 percent points). When taking the margin of error into consideration, the preferences of Republican voters are far from certain. But first, what is a margin of error (MOE)? It doesn’t measure most kinds of errors that plague many polls and surveys, like biased questions or selecting survey respondents in a way that’s not random. MOE does not measure a mistake, either. When a random sample of all Republicans is taken—a small group of people meant to be chosen randomly from all the possible likely Republican voters—there is always a possibility that the opinions of those in this sample don’t reflect those o
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