Articles With A Margin Of Error
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Polls | 2 comments Presidential Polling's Margin for Error by Rebecca Goldin | Oct 14, 2015 | Margin of error, Polls | 2 comments Polls are finding Donald Trump ahead—way ahead—of other candidates running for the Republican nomination for presidency. margin of error examples Based on a recent Pew Research Center poll, CNN practically declared victory for him, noting
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he got 25 percent of the votes in the survey. The Daily News wrote off Jeb Bush—pointing to his 4 percent support rate.
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Ben Carson came in at 16 percent; Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio won 8 percent. Another poll conducted in October by MSNBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist, found Donald Trump has the support of 21 percent of the participating Republicans in
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New Hampshire– down from 28 percent of respondents in September. Fiorina comes in second, with 16 percent support, up from 6 percent a month ago. The same organization found 24 percent support for Trump in Iowa in October, down from 29 percent last month. Ben Carson, second in the lead in Iowa in this poll, captures 19 percent of the support, down from 22 percent last month. Yet both polls had fewer than 500 participants, resulting margin of error in polls in high margins of error (about 5 percent points). When taking the margin of error into consideration, the preferences of Republican voters are far from certain. But first, what is a margin of error (MOE)? It doesn’t measure most kinds of errors that plague many polls and surveys, like biased questions or selecting survey respondents in a way that’s not random. MOE does not measure a mistake, either. When a random sample of all Republicans is taken—a small group of people meant to be chosen randomly from all the possible likely Republican voters—there is always a possibility that the opinions of those in this sample don’t reflect those of the whole population. The MOE is a measurement of how confident we can be that such a survey of the opinions of a small number of people actually reflects the opinions of the whole population. Polls like these may have other major problems than simply sampling error. Quite possibly they haven’t accounted correctly for the demographics among the respondents to the polls. If those who respond are poorer, more likely to be white, less likely to be educated, or even less likely to vote, than those who actually vote, the survey will be biased. But assuming all of the issues of who participates in the poll have been adjusted, there’s still sampling error. That’s what the
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Events Jobs.Economist.com The Economist Store Timekeeper reading list My SubscriptionSubscribe to The Economist Activate my digital subscription Manage my subscription Renew Log in or register Subscribe Search this site: World politicsPolitics this week http://www.economist.com/news/finance-and-economics/21588901-american-corporate-profits-seem-have-defied-gravity-margin-error United States Britain Europe China Asia Americas Middle East & Africa International Business & https://explorable.com/statistics-margin-of-error financeAll Business & finance Which MBA? EconomicsAll Economics Economics A-Z Markets & data Indicators Science & technologyAll Science & technology Technology Quarterly CultureAll Culture 1843 Magazine Style guide The Economist Quiz BlogsLatest updates Bagehot's notebook Buttonwood's notebook Democracy in America Erasmus Free exchange Game theory Graphic detail Gulliver Prospero The Economist explains DebateEconomist debates Letters to the margin of editor MultimediaEconomist Films Economist Radio Multimedia library The Economist in audio Print editionCurrent issue Previous issues Special reports Politics this week Business this week Leaders KAL's cartoon Obituaries Buttonwood Margin for error American corporate profits seem to have defied gravity Nov 2nd 2013 | From the print edition Add this article to your reading list by clicking this button Tweet THIS time is different. It is one of the oldest margin of error mottos in the financial markets. When Japanese shares traded at intimidating multiples of profits in the late 1980s, sceptics were told that Western valuation methods simply did not apply to Tokyo stocks. During the dotcom bubble, bulls laughed at those who worried about the absence of profits, let alone dividends, at some of the hottest technology companies. The new “key metrics”, believers explained, were price-per-user or price-per-click. In this sectionLabour pains Margin for error Of loans and sharks Cream of Devon When education dries up The rating game A culture of fear No need to dig Reprints Investors were relieved of their optimism and their cash on both of those occasions. But the old canard is being trotted out again. American profits are at a post-war high as a proportion of GDP (see chart). Given the cyclical nature of profits, a bit of caution about future growth might be in order. But analysts are forecasting that companies in the S&P 500 will achieve a further 10.9% growth in earnings per share in 2014. There is an element of charade about this forecast. Analysts often start the year in optimistic mode and then revise down their numbers as they get guidance from the companies they cover. Take the third-quarter results season, w
Academic Journals Tips For KidsFor Kids How to Conduct Experiments Experiments With Food Science Experiments Historic Experiments Self-HelpSelf-Help Self-Esteem Worry Social Anxiety Arachnophobia Anxiety SiteSite About FAQ Terms Privacy Policy Contact Sitemap Search Code LoginLogin Sign Up Margin of Error (Statistics) . Home > Research > Statistics > Margin of Error . . . Siddharth Kalla 35.3K reads Comments Share this page on your website: Margin of Error (Statistics) In statistics margin of error plays a very important role in many social science experiments, surveys, etc. This article is a part of the guide: Select from one of the other courses available: Scientific Method Research Design Research Basics Experimental Research Sampling Validity and Reliability Write a Paper Biological Psychology Child Development Stress & Coping Motivation and Emotion Memory & Learning Personality Social Psychology Experiments Science Projects for Kids Survey Guide Philosophy of Science Reasoning Ethics in Research Ancient History Renaissance & Enlightenment Medical History Physics Experiments Biology Experiments Zoology Statistics Beginners Guide Statistical Conclusion Statistical Tests Distribution in Statistics Discover 24 more articles on this topic Don't miss these related articles: 1Significance 2 2Sample Size 3Cronbach’s Alpha 4Experimental Probability 5Systematic Error Browse Full Outline 1Inferential Statistics 2Experimental Probability 2.1Bayesian Probability 3Confidence Interval 3.1Significance Test 3.1.1Significance 2 3.2Significant Results 3.3Sample Size 3.4Margin of Error 3.5Experimental Error 3.5.1Random Error 3.5.2Systematic Error 3.5.3Data Dredging 3.5.4Ad Hoc Analysis 3.5.5Regression Toward the Mean 4Statistical Power Analysis 4.1P-Value 4.2Effect Size 5Ethics in S