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News Article With Margin Of Error

Polls | 2 comments Presidential Polling's Margin for Error by Rebecca Goldin | Oct 14, 2015 | Margin of error, Polls | 2 comments Polls are finding Donald Trump ahead—way ahead—of other candidates running for the Republican nomination for presidency. Based on a recent Pew Research Center poll, CNN practically declared victory for him, noting he got 25 percent of the votes in the survey. The Daily News wrote off Jeb Bush—pointing to his 4 percent support rate. Ben Carson came in at 16 percent; Carly Fiorina and Marco Rubio won 8 percent. Another poll conducted in October by MSNBC/Wall Street Journal/Marist, found Donald Trump has the support of 21 percent of the participating Republicans in New Hampshire– down from 28 percent of respondents in September. Fiorina comes in second, with 16 percent support, up from 6 percent a month ago. The same organization found 24 percent support for Trump in Iowa in October, down from 29 percent last month. Ben Carson, second in the lead in Iowa in this poll, captures 19 percent of the support, down from 22 percent last month. Yet both polls had fewer than 500 participants, resulting in high margins of error (about 5 percent points). When taking the margin of error into consideration, the preferences of Republican voters are far from certain. But first, what is a margin of error (MOE)? It doesn’t measure most kinds of errors that plague many polls and surveys, like biased questions or selecting survey respondents in a way that’s not random. MOE does not measure a mistake, either. When a random sample of all Republicans is taken—a small group of people meant to be chosen randomly from all the possible likely Republican voters—there is always a possibility that the opinions of those in this sample don’t reflect those of the whole population. The MOE is a measurement of how confident we can be that such a survey of the opinions of a small number of people actually reflects the opinions of the whole population. Polls like these may have other major problems than simply sampling error. Quite possibly they haven’t accounted correctly for the demographics among the respondents to

Trump that have emerged over the last two weeks, that Hillary Clinton might have only gained two points in a national poll series -- and Trump remains within the margin of error? Er, probably not, but that's what the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows. Thanks in part to a deeply dug-in electorate and a lack of enthusiasm for any choice, Hillary leads by four in both the two-way and four-way race polling. Even the Post's Scott Clement and Dan Balz can't quite believe the data, emphasis http://www.stats.org/presidential-pollings-margin-for-error/ mine: Overall, Clinton leads Trump by 47-43 percent among likely voters, a slight edge given the survey’s four-percentage-point error margin. Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson has the support of 5 percent, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is at 2 percent. Among registered voters, the poll shows a similar four-point margin, with Clinton at 44, Trump at 40, Johnson at 6 and Stein at 3. In a two-way http://hotair.com/archives/2016/10/17/wapoabc-poll-trump-still-within-margin-error/ matchup, Clinton leads Trump by 50-46 percent among likely voters and by 50-44 percent among registered voters. The current findings show only slight changes from the last Post-ABC survey, which was taken on the eve of the first presidential debate. At that time, Clinton held an insignificant two-point edge over Trump among likely voters. The findings are somewhat better for Trump than other polls taken since the video, but if Clinton were to maintain such an advantage until Election Day, that could translate into a sizable electoral college majority. Citing other polls to call into question one's own? That's an interesting marketing strategy. According to RCP's aggregation and averages, it might be a wee bit overstated as well. The latest NBC/WSJ poll puts Hillary up 11 points, but that seems to be an outlier, as does the LA Times tracking poll that puts Trump up by one and Rasmussen's Trump +2. The RCP average puts Hillary up by less than six points in both the four-way and binary races, so a Hillary +4 isn't outside the ballpark. Still, the other internals seem to call into question whether this is for real. Hillary has

EXCLUSIVE: Margin of Error in National Polls Impacts GOP Top Ten Ranking AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster by Alex Swoyer4 Aug 2015Washington, DC0 4 Aug, 2015 4 Aug, 2015 SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTERFox News determined the top ten GOP presidential candidates that will take to the main debate stage on Thursday based on the average of http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/08/04/exclusive-margin-of-error-in-national-polls-impacts-gop-top-ten-ranking/ five national polls, but a veteran Republican strategist exclusively told Breitbart News that the margin https://www.jstor.org/stable/4135315 of error within each poll could impact the ranking, especially for the last few slots in the top ten. “The margin of error on most of these polls are either three or four percent, so someone at one could really be at four or five … or even below zero,” explained Jim Innocenzi, a veteran Republican strategist who spoke exclusively news article with Breitbart News on this issue. “When you get down to the smaller numbers, there is a huge variance from one versus another.”SIGN UP FOR OUR NEWSLETTER Innocenzi explained the impact from the margin of error is really more critical to the candidates at the bottom of the top ten, not necessarily someone who is leading the pack of the GOP field overwhelmingly, such as GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump, who had a 14 point lead news article with over former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush. Bush came in second, with 12 percent in a recent Monmouth poll. “It’s fairly valid where Trump is versus where Christie is,” Innocenzi told Breitbart News. “When you get to the seven, eight, ninth, and tenth candidates versus someone who is eleven or twelve, it could all be the same,” he explained. As to whether or not Fox News should have announced the five polls that will be used to make the final top ten selections, Innocenzi said, “I don’t think it matters. To be honest, I think that it doesn’t matter what five polls they pick. It’s going to be arbitrary.” “At some point you have to draw the line, so they’re going to pick the five that are going to be the most valid,” he said, adding that he believes Fox News is going to be as fair as it can in determining the top ten GOP candidates. Innocenzi has been in the business for about 35 years running political advertisement campaigns at the local, state and federal levels. “I’ve got people elected,” Innocenzi said of his veteran status in the world of politics. On the topic of campaign advertisements, he said the candidates are “renting votes to be on TV right now,” suggesting that it “may not be a great measure of who is real and w

Login Help Contact Us About Access You are not currently logged in. Access your personal account or get JSTOR access through your library or other institution: login Log in to your personal account or through your institution. If You Use a Screen ReaderThis content is available through Read Online (Free) program, which relies on page scans. Since scans are not currently available to screen readers, please contact JSTOR User Support for access. We'll provide a PDF copy for your screen reader. Southern Economic Journal Vol. 71, No. 1, Jul., 2004 Erring on the Margin... Erring on the Margin of Error Robert J. Thornton and Jennifer A. Thornton Southern Economic Journal Vol. 71, No. 1 (Jul., 2004), pp. 130-135 Published by: Southern Economic Association DOI: 10.2307/4135315 Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/4135315 Page Count: 6 Read Online (Free) Download ($14.00) Subscribe ($19.50) Cite this Item Cite This Item Copy Citation Export Citation Export to RefWorks Export a RIS file (For EndNote, ProCite, Reference Manager, Zotero…) Export a Text file (For BibTex) Note: Always review your references and make any necessary corrections before using. Pay attention to names, capitalization, and dates. × Close Overlay Journal Info Southern Economic Journal Description: The Southern Economic Journal features original, refereed scholarly articles in all areas of economics as well as contributions on the pedagogy of economics. The journal also contains occasional invited papers such as the Distinguished Guest Lecture, and the Presidential Address from the annual conference of the Southern Economic Association (SEA). In addition, the journal serves members of SEA and other readers interested in economics through the publication of book reviews, and announcements. The Southern Economic Journal has been published quarterly by the Southern Economic Association since its inception in 1933, and currently contains approximately 1,000 printed pages per year. Coverage: 1933-2012 (Vol. 1, No. 1 - Vol. 79, No. 2) Moving Wall Moving Wall: 3 years (What is the moving wall?) Moving Wall The "moving wall" represents the time period between the last issue available in JSTOR and the most recently published issue of a journal. Moving walls are generally represented in years. In rare instances, a publisher has elected to have a "zero" moving wall, so their current issues are available in JSTOR shortly after publication. Note: In calculating the moving wall, the current year is not counted. For example, if the current year is 2008 and a journal has a 5 year moving wall, articles from the year 2002 are available. Terms Related to the

 

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