Margin Of Error Definition For Dummies
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Margin Of Error Definition Statistics
Dummies, 3rd Edition Statistics II for Dummies Load more EducationMathStatisticsHow to Interpret the Margin of Error in Statistics How to Interpret the what does margin of error mean in confidence intervals Margin of Error in Statistics Related Book Statistics For Dummies, 2nd Edition By Deborah J. Rumsey You've probably heard or seen results like this: "This statistical survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage
What Does Margin Of Error Mean In Polls
points." What does this mean? Most surveys are based on information collected from a sample of individuals, not the entire population (as a census would be). A certain amount of error is bound to occur -- not in the sense of calculation error (although there may be some of that, too) but in the sense of sampling error, which is the error that occurs simply because the researchers aren't asking everyone. The margin of error poll bias definition is supposed to measure the maximum amount by which the sample results are expected to differ from those of the actual population. Because the results of most survey questions can be reported in terms of percentages, the margin of error most often appears as a percentage, as well. How do you interpret a margin of error? Suppose you know that 51% of people sampled say that they plan to vote for Ms. Calculation in the upcoming election. Now, projecting these results to the whole voting population, you would have to add and subtract the margin of error and give a range of possible results in order to have sufficient confidence that you're bridging the gap between your sample and the population. Supposing a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, you would be pretty confident that between 48% (= 51% - 3%) and 54% (= 51% + 3%) of the population will vote for Ms. Calculation in the election, based on the sample results. In this case, Ms. Calculation may get slightly more or slightly less than the majority of votes and could either win or lose the election. This has become a familiar situation in recent years when the media want to report results on Election Night, but based on early exit polling results, the election is "too cl
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Margin Of Error Definition Politics
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How Is Margin Of Error Calculated In Polls
ARTICLES What the Margin of Error Tells You About a Statistical… Statistics Essentials For Dummies Statistics For Dummies, margin of error three percentage points confidence level 95 from a prior study 2nd Edition SPSS Statistics for Dummies, 3rd Edition Statistics II for Dummies Load more EducationMathStatisticsWhat the Margin of Error Tells You About a Statistical Sample What the Margin http://www.dummies.com/education/math/statistics/how-to-interpret-the-margin-of-error-in-statistics/ of Error Tells You About a Statistical Sample Related Book Statistics For Dummies, 2nd Edition By Deborah J. Rumsey If you read statistical survey results without knowing the margin of error, or MOE, you are only getting part of the story. Survey results themselves (with no MOE) are only a measure of how the sample of selected http://www.dummies.com/education/math/statistics/what-the-margin-of-error-tells-you-about-a-statistical-sample/ individuals felt about the issue; they don't reflect how the entire population may have felt, had they all been asked. The margin of error helps you estimate how close you are to the truth about the population based on your sample data. Results based on a sample won't be exactly the same as what you would've found for the entire population, because when you take a sample, you don't get information from everyone in the population. However, if the study is done right, the results from the sample should be close to and representative of the actual values for the entire population, with a high level of confidence. The MOE doesn't mean someone made a mistake; all it means is that you didn't get to sample everybody in the population, so you expect your sample results to vary from that population by a certain amount. In other words, you acknowledge that your results will change with subsequent samples and are only accurate to within a certain range -- which ca
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of respondents favor Ms. Smith in the upcoming mayoral election. There is a margin of error of 3 percentage points." What does a statement like this mean? This pamphlet attempts to answer this question and to provide some cautions on the use of the "margin of error" as the sole measure of a survey's uncertainty. Surveys are typically designed to provide an estimate of the true value of one or more characteristics of a population at a given time. The target of a survey might be the average value of a measurable quantity, such as annual 1998 income or SAT scores for a particular group. a proportion, such as the proportion of likely voters having a certain viewpoint in a mayoral election the percentage of children under three years of age immunized for polio in 1997 An estimate from a survey is unlikely to exactly equal the true population quantity of interest for a variety of reasons. For one thing, the questions maybe badly worded. For another, some people who are supposed to be in the sample may not be at home, or even if they are, they may refuse to participate or may not tell the truth. These are sources of "nonsampling error." But the estimate will probably still differ from the true value, even if all nonsampling errors could be eliminated. This is because data in a survey are collected from only some-but not all-members of the population to make data collection cheaper or faster, usually both. Suppose, in the mayoral election poll mentioned earlier, we sample 100 people who intend to vote and that 55 support Ms. Smith while 45 support Mr. Jones. This would seem to suggest that a majority of the town's voters, including people not sampled but who will vote in the election, would support Ms. Smith. Of course, just by chance, a majority in a particular sample might support Ms. Smith even if the majority in the population supports Mr. Jones. Such an occurrence might arise due to "sampling error," meaning that results in the sample differ from a target population quantity, simply due to the "luck of the draw"-i.e., by which set of 100 people were chosen to be in the sample. Does sampling error render surveys useless? Fortunately, the answer to this question is "No." But how should we summarize the strength of the information in a survey? That is a role for the margin of error. Margin of Error Defined The "margin of error" is a common summary of sampling error, referred to regularly in the media, which quantifies uncertainty about a survey result. The margin of error can be interpreted b