Maximal Margin Of Error Definition
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Margin Of Error Formula
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Margin Of Error In Polls
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Margin Of Error Excel
Essentials For Dummies Statistics For Dummies, 2nd Edition SPSS Statistics for Dummies, 3rd Edition Statistics II for Dummies Load more margin of error synonym EducationMathStatisticsHow to Interpret the Margin of Error in Statistics How to Interpret the Margin of Error in Statistics Related Book Statistics For Dummies, 2nd Edition By Deborah J. Rumsey You've probably heard or http://stattrek.com/statistics/dictionary.aspx?definition=margin%20of%20error seen results like this: "This statistical survey had a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points." What does this mean? Most surveys are based on information collected from a sample of individuals, not the entire population (as a census would be). A certain amount of error is bound to occur -- not in the sense of calculation error (although there may be some http://www.dummies.com/education/math/statistics/how-to-interpret-the-margin-of-error-in-statistics/ of that, too) but in the sense of sampling error, which is the error that occurs simply because the researchers aren't asking everyone. The margin of error is supposed to measure the maximum amount by which the sample results are expected to differ from those of the actual population. Because the results of most survey questions can be reported in terms of percentages, the margin of error most often appears as a percentage, as well. How do you interpret a margin of error? Suppose you know that 51% of people sampled say that they plan to vote for Ms. Calculation in the upcoming election. Now, projecting these results to the whole voting population, you would have to add and subtract the margin of error and give a range of possible results in order to have sufficient confidence that you're bridging the gap between your sample and the population. Supposing a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points, you would be pretty confident that between 48% (= 51% - 3%) and 54% (= 51% + 3%) of the population will vote for Ms. Calculation in the election, based on the sample results. In this cas
Newsletter Read on Play Newsstand Information Who we are Our charter Our team Our audience Partners and funders Contributing institutions Contact us Friends of The Conversation Privacy policy Terms and conditions Corrections Edition: Australia Africa France Global United Kingdom United States Job Board Donate Become http://theconversation.com/the-margin-of-error-explained-16393 an author Sign up as a reader Sign in Get newsletter Search Academic rigour, journalistic flair Arts + Culture Business + Economy Education Environment + Energy Health + Medicine Politics + Society Science + Technology Follow Topics Democracy Futures Indonesia Cities Same-sex marriage plebiscite Islamic State Asylum seekers National security Domestic violence Constitutional recognition Malcolm Turnbull Subscribe Making sense of the polls The numbers tell thestory The Margin of ErrorExplained July 25, 2013 3.07pm AEST Adrian Beaumont Author Adrian margin of Beaumont PhD Student, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Melbourne Partners University of Melbourne provides funding as a founding partner of The Conversation AU. Victoria State Government provides funding as a strategic partner of The Conversation AU. View all partners Republish this article We believe in the free flow of information. We use a Creative Commons Attribution NoDerivatives licence, so you can republish our articles for free, online or in print. Republish Email Twitter Facebook LinkedIn What affects margin of error a Poll’s Margin of Error? There are two things that affect the margin of error (MOE). They are the poll’s sample size (n) and the estimated or assumed proportion (p); the estimated proportion is just a poll’s percentage divided by 100. The maximum margin of error for a particular sample size is obtained when p = 0.5 (equivalent to 50%). The margin of error is proportional to the square root of p*(1-p). This means that the major parties’ primary votes and two party vote will be near the maximum margin of error, but the Greens are currently on around 10% of the vote, and this means that the MOE for the Greens will be less than for the major parties. The MOE is inversely proportional to the square root of the sample size, so we need bigger samples to produce more accurate polls. A sample of 400 will produce a maximum MOE of 5%, and approximately 1100 gives an MOE of 3%. We then need 2500 for an MOE of 2% and 10,000 to get this down to 1%. However, note that if the poll is methodologically flawed, and thus is biased for or against one party, the poll will not be an accurate reflection of the result no matter what its sample size is! So what does the MOE mean? Virtually always the reported margin of error assumes the maximum MOE for that