Presidential Polls 2012 Margin Of Error
Contents |
All By subject True Mostly True Half True Mostly False False Pants on Fire! No Flip Half Flip Full Flop 2016 People Donald Trump Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine Mike Pence 2012 presidential polls Barack Obama Chain E-mails Other people and groups Promises Obameter All Top
Margin Of Error Definition
25 Promises By subject Not yet rated In the Works Stalled Promise Kept Compromise Promise Broken GOP Pledge-O-Meter
Margin Of Error Calculator
All By subject Not yet rated In the Works Stalled Promise Kept Compromise Promise Broken Pants On Fire About Us Our Process Our Staff Who Pays for Politifact Suggest a http://www.cnn.com/2012/11/04/politics/margin-of-error-campaign-foreman/ Fact Check Advertise New Jersey Edition The New Jersey Truth-O-Meter All True Mostly True Half True Mostly False False Pants on Fire! Promises Articles People Elections Subjects "If you look at most of the polls, this is a margin-of-error race on Fourth of July between Mitt Romney and the president." — Chris Christie on Tuesday, July 3rd, 2012 in an interview http://www.politifact.com/new-jersey/statements/2012/jul/05/chris-christie/mitt-romney-barack-obama-margin-error-race-white-h/ on CNBC Mitt Romney, Barack Obama in “margin-of-error race” according to most polls, says Chris Christie By Erin O'Neill on Thursday, July 5th, 2012 at 7:30 a.m.
Gov. Chris Christie appears on CNBC's Squawk Box on Tuesday. Gov. Chris Christie said a narrow win for the national health care law in the U.S. Supreme Court helped boost President Barack Obama’s poll numbers over his Republican opponent for the moment. But, he said, the race for the White House is a statistical dead heat. "If you look at most of the polls, this is a margin-of-error race on Fourth of July between Mitt Romney and the president," Christie, a top surrogate for Romney, said in an interview on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Tuesday. "And if for any Republican, if I had told them in January, in the middle of the scrum between the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary with Mitt Romney getting beaten up by all those people on the stage, ‘Don't worry. On Fourth of July, it'll be a dead heat race between the president aTank - Our Lives in Numbers September 8, 2016 5 key things to know about the margin of error in election polls By Andrew Mercer8 comments In presidential elections, even the smallest changes in horse-race poll results seem to become imbued with deep meaning. But they are often overstated. Pollsters disclose a margin http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/09/08/understanding-the-margin-of-error-in-election-polls/ of error so that consumers can have an understanding of how much precision they can reasonably expect. But cool-headed reporting on polls is harder than it looks, because some of the better-known statistical rules of thumb that a smart consumer might http://dailycaller.com/2012/11/20/a-margin-of-error-election/ think apply are more nuanced than they seem. In other words, as is so often true in life, it’s complicated. Here are some tips on how to think about a poll’s margin of error and what it means for the different margin of kinds of things we often try to learn from survey data. 1What is the margin of error anyway? Because surveys only talk to a sample of the population, we know that the result probably won’t exactly match the “true” result that we would get if we interviewed everyone in the population. The margin of sampling error describes how close we can reasonably expect a survey result to fall relative to the true population value. A margin of error of plus or minus margin of error 3 percentage points at the 95% confidence level means that if we fielded the same survey 100 times, we would expect the result to be within 3 percentage points of the true population value 95 of those times. The margin of error that pollsters customarily report describes the amount of variability we can expect around an individual candidate’s level of support. For example, in the accompanying graphic, a hypothetical Poll A shows the Republican candidate with 48% support. A plus or minus 3 percentage point margin of error would mean that 48% Republican support is within the range of what we would expect if the true level of support in the full population lies somewhere 3 points in either direction – i.e., between 45% and 51%. 2How do I know if a candidate’s lead is ‘outside the margin of error’? News reports about polling will often say that a candidate’s lead is “outside the margin of error” to indicate that a candidate’s lead is greater than what we would expect from sampling error, or that a race is “a statistical tie” if it’s too close to call. It is not enough for one candidate to be ahead by more than the margin of error that is reported for individual candidates (i.e., ahead by more than 3 points, in our example). To determine whether or not the race is too close to call, we need to calculate a new margin of error for the d
Home 2016 Politics US World Entertainment Sports Business Opinion Guns and Gear Deals Issues Defense Education Energy Blogs The Mirror Matt Lewis DC Trawler Send a Tip Opinion A margin-of-error election Brandon J. GaylordEditor-in-Chief, HorseRacePolitics.com 12:51 AM 11/20/2012 Pinterest Reddit LinkedIn WhatsApp Share TOP 3500191Sometimes taking the wrong lesson from defeat can be worse than not learning anything at all. While Republicans are scrambling to do damage control in the wake of this month’s election, they should keep in mind that their presidential candidate only lost by a couple percentage points in the popular vote. The 2012 presidential election was not a repudiation of Mitt Romney or the Republican brand, but rather the result of a confluence of factors: the Obama campaign’s expert execution of its attack strategy, the Romney campaign’s flubbing of its get-out-the-vote effort, and a hurricane. Obama’s early attack In the spring of 2012, with the GOP primary still underway, the Obama campaign began attacking Mitt Romney with negative ads. By May, the effort to portray Romney as an out-of-touch millionaire was in full swing. The Obama campaign (with an assist from the other Republican presidential candidates) also attacked Romney on his time at Bain Capital, severely hindering his ability to tout his business experience during the general election. The Obama campaign’s strategy was to define their opponent before he could define himself. The Bush campaign executed this strategy flawlessly in 2004 and the Obama campaign followed suit in 2012. ORCA Get-out-the-vote efforts are straightforward. A campaign, often in coordination with state parties, will compile lists of voters who are likely to back their candidate. Then, the campaign will contact those voters to ask if the candidate can count on their support. If a voter confirms her support for the candidate, the campaign takes note and the individual is added to a strike list. On Election Day, someone is stationed at each precinct to cross out or “strike through” each of the anticipated voters. As Election Day progresses, campaigns will contact those voters who said they