Presidential Polls Error
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Follow us Facebook YouTube Twitter Pinterest NOW Adventure Animals Auto Culture Entertainment Health Home & Garden More Lifestyle Money Science Tech Video Shows Quizzes Lifestyle Money Science Tech Video Shows Quizzes How Political Polling Works by Dave Roos Culture | Elections Margins of Error Prev Next What margin of error calculator does it really mean when the news anchor says: "The latest polls show Johnson with 51
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percent of the vote and Smith with 49 percent, with a 3 percent margin of error"? If there is a 3 percent margin of sampling error error, and Johnson leads Smith by only two percentage points, then isn't the poll useless? Isn't it equally possible that Smith is winning by one point? The margin of error is one of the least understood aspects of political polling. http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/06/upshot/when-you-hear-the-margin-of-error-is-plus-or-minus-3-percent-think-7-instead.html The confusion begins with the name itself. The official name of the margin of error is the margin of sampling error (MOSE). The margin of sampling error is a statistically proven number based on the size of the sample group [source: American Association for Public Opinion Research]. It has nothing to do with the accuracy of the poll itself. The true margin of error of a political poll is impossible to measure, because there are so many different things http://people.howstuffworks.com/political-polling2.htm that could alter the accuracy of a poll: biased questions, poor analysis, simple math mistakes. Up Next 10 Bizarre Moments in Presidential Elections The Ultimate Political Gaffe Quiz 10 Ways the U.S. Has Kept Citizens From Voting The U.S. Presidential Also-Rans Quiz The U.S. Presidential Debates Quiz Instead, the MOSE is a straightforward equation based solely on the size of the sample group (assuming that the total population is 10,000 or greater) [source: AAPOR]. As a rule, the larger the sample group, the smaller the margin of error. For example, a sample size of 100 respondents has a MOSE of +/- 10 percentage points, which is pretty huge. A sample of 1,000 respondents, however, has a MOSE of +/- 3 percentage points. To achieve a MOSE of +/- 1 percentage point, you need a sample of at least 5,000 respondents [source: AAPOR]. Most political polls aim for 1,000 respondents, because it delivers the most accurate results with the fewest calls. Let's get back to our tight political race between Johnson and Smith. Does a 2-percent lead mean anything in a poll with a 3 percent margin of sampling error? Not really. In fact, it's worse than you think. The margin of error applies to each candidate independently [source: Zukin]. When the poll says that Johnson has 51 percent of the vote, it really means that he has anywhere between 48 and 54 percent of the vote. L
since 2003. Category » Politics MOST RECENT RELEASES What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls The debates are done. Is http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics it a race or a runaway? Depends on whom you ask. Most Still Say Clinton Should Have Been Indicted Most voters still disagree with the FBI's decision not to seek a criminal indictment of Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton over her mishandling of classified information when she was secretary of State, and even more rate the issue as important to their vote. margin of A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that 39% of Likely U.S. Voters agree with the FBI’s decision not to indict Clinton after it concluded that she potentially exposed top secret information to hostile countries when she used a private e-mail server as secretary of State. But 53% disagree and believe the FBI should have sought a criminal indictment against margin of error her. (To see survey question wording, click here.) (Want a free daily e-mail update? If it's in the news, it's in our polls). Rasmussen Reports updates are also available on Twitter or Facebook. The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 18-19, 2016 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology. Daily Presidential Tracking Poll The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Friday shows that 52% of Likely U.S. Voters approve of President Obama's job performance. Forty-six percent (46%) disapprove. The latest figures include 34% of who Strongly Approve of the way Obama is performing as president and 35% who Strongly Disapprove. This gives him a Presidential Approval Index rating of -1 (see trends). This is the president’s highest Approval Index rating since mid-February 2013. Regular updates are posted Monday through Friday at 9:30 a.m. Eastern (sign up for freedaily e-mail update). White House Watch: Still A Close One Early results from their final d