Rcp Margin Of Error
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Margin Of Error Political Polls
Sit ... Entry: Global Warming Lorem Ipsum Dolor Sit ... Video: Global poll margin of error calculator Warming Lorem Ipsum Dolor Sit ... Are the exit polls, on which just about every elections analyst has relied,
Margin Of Error In Polls Definition
wrong? That's a question raised by New York Times Upshot writer Nate Cohn -- a question whose answers have serious implications for how you look at the 2016 general election. polls with margin of error and sample size Standard analysis is that Democrats have a built-in advantage because the electorate is increasingly non-white. The exit polls say the white percentage of the electorate declined from 77 percent in 2004 to 74 percent in 2008 and 72 percent in 2012. In that year, they said, 13 percent of voters were black, 10 percent Hispanics, 3 percent Asian. Since then, these presidential poll margin of error groups have been voting heavily Democratic, by varying margins, and analysts have argued that it's very hard for a Republican to win, especially one who has antagonized non-whites, as Donald Trump has. But exit polls may not be accurate, Cohn argues. As he points out, they are designed not to accurately represent the proportions of each demographic group, but to indicate the actual result, within a statistical margin of error, and to show the differing responses of significant subgroups. Moreover, as Cohn doesn't mention, the results are massaged by the exit pollsters and media analysts, who are aware that some voters (the young, for example) are more likely than others to fill out exit poll questionnaires. So Cohn looks at two other sources of information on how people voted, the Census Bureau's Current Population Survey and the Democratic firm Catalist's voter file compiled from public voting records. Both sources, like exit polls, have their weaknesses. Many non-voters tell the Census Bureau they voted. Voter records are often erroneous or out of date. Even so, the two sources paint a significantly different an
Johnson vs. Stein (2-Way Race) | acceptable margin of error RCP Electoral Map| State Changes| No Toss Up Map| No Toss
Rasmussen Poll
Up Changes|Latest PollsRCP Electoral Map| Changes in Electoral Count| Map With No Toss Ups| No Toss Up Changes|Latest Polls http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2016/06/14/possible_errors_in_exit_polls_suggest_more_election_surprises_ahead_130875.html Polling DataPollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Johnson (L)Stein (G)SpreadRCP Average10/13 - 10/24----45.339.96.02.2Clinton +5.4Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen10/20 - 10/241500 LV2.5434252Clinton +1IBD/TIPP TrackingIBD/TIPP Tracking10/19 - 10/24815 LV3.6424183Clinton +1CNN/ORCCNN/ORC10/20 - 10/23779 LV3.5494432Clinton +5ABC News TrackingABC News Tracking10/20 - 10/23611 LV4.5503852Clinton +12NBC News/SMNBC News10/17 - 10/2332225 LV1.0464173Clinton http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton_vs_johnson_vs_stein-5952.html +5QuinnipiacQuinnipiac10/17 - 10/181007 LV3.1474071Clinton +7Economist/YouGovEconomist10/15 - 10/18925 RV3.9423861Clinton +4FOX NewsFOX News10/15 - 10/17912 LV3.0453953Clinton +6BloombergBloomberg10/14 - 10/171006 LV3.1473883Clinton +9Reuters/IpsosReuters10/13 - 10/171190 LV3.3423862Clinton +4All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein Polling DataRCP Poll AverageGeneral Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. SteinGeneral Election: Trump vs. Clinton vs. Johnson vs. Stein45.3Clinton (D)+5.439.9Trump (R)6.0Johnson (L)2.2Stein (G) ---------- -- From: to: Polling DataPollDateSampleMoEClinton (D)Trump (R)Johnson (L)Stein (G)SpreadRCP Average10/13 - 10/24----45.339.96.02.2Clinton +5.4Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen10/20 - 10/241500 LV2.5434252Clinton +1IBD/TIPP TrackingIBD/TIPP Tracking10/19 - 10/24815 LV3.6424183Clinton +1CNN/ORCCNN/ORC10/20 - 10/23779 LV3.5494432Clinton +5ABC News TrackingABC News Tracking10/20 - 10/23611 LV4.5503852Clinton +12Rasmussen ReportsRasmussen10/19 - 10/231500 LV2.5414353Trump +2NBC News/SMNBC News10/17 - 10/2332225 LV1.0464173Clinton +5ABC News TrackingABC News Tracking10/20 - 10/22874 LV3.5503852Clinton
Trump that have emerged over the last two weeks, that Hillary Clinton might have only gained two points in a national poll series -- and Trump remains within the margin of error? Er, probably not, but http://hotair.com/archives/2016/10/17/wapoabc-poll-trump-still-within-margin-error/ that's what the latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows. Thanks in part to a deeply dug-in electorate and a lack of enthusiasm for any choice, Hillary leads by four in both the two-way and four-way race polling. Even the Post's Scott Clement and Dan Balz can't quite believe the data, emphasis mine: Overall, Clinton leads Trump by 47-43 percent among likely voters, a slight edge given the survey’s four-percentage-point error margin. Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson has margin of the support of 5 percent, and Green Party nominee Jill Stein is at 2 percent. Among registered voters, the poll shows a similar four-point margin, with Clinton at 44, Trump at 40, Johnson at 6 and Stein at 3. In a two-way matchup, Clinton leads Trump by 50-46 percent among likely voters and by 50-44 percent among registered voters. The current findings show only slight changes from the last Post-ABC survey, which was taken on the eve of the first presidential margin of error debate. At that time, Clinton held an insignificant two-point edge over Trump among likely voters. The findings are somewhat better for Trump than other polls taken since the video, but if Clinton were to maintain such an advantage until Election Day, that could translate into a sizable electoral college majority. Citing other polls to call into question one's own? That's an interesting marketing strategy. According to RCP's aggregation and averages, it might be a wee bit overstated as well. The latest NBC/WSJ poll puts Hillary up 11 points, but that seems to be an outlier, as does the LA Times tracking poll that puts Trump up by one and Rasmussen's Trump +2. The RCP average puts Hillary up by less than six points in both the four-way and binary races, so a Hillary +4 isn't outside the ballpark. Still, the other internals seem to call into question whether this is for real. Hillary has a poor 42/56 favorability rating, but Trump's is worse at 37/62. Hillary has a lead on almost all of the issue questions, with the most depressing being an eight-point advantage on ethics in government (45/37, RVs). Despite Trump's attempts to paint himself as a working-class hero, Hillary beats him by double digits on protecting the middle class (51/37, RVs). But it seems even more suspect when looking at the responses to the allegations and remarks th