Percent Error Calculation Wikipedia
Contents |
1 ( x ) = 1 + x {\displaystyle P_{1}(x)=1+x} (red) at a = 0. The approximation error is the gap between the curves, and it increases for x values further mean percentage error from 0. The approximation error in some data is the discrepancy between an
Relative Error
exact value and some approximation to it. An approximation error can occur because the measurement of the data is not percent difference formula precise due to the instruments. (e.g., the accurate reading of a piece of paper is 4.5cm but since the ruler does not use decimals, you round it to 5cm.) or approximations are used instead
Absolute Error
of the real data (e.g., 3.14 instead of π). In the mathematical field of numerical analysis, the numerical stability of an algorithm in numerical analysis indicates how the error is propagated by the algorithm. Contents 1 Formal Definition 1.1 Generalizations 2 Examples 3 Uses of relative error 4 Instruments 5 See also 6 References 7 External links Formal Definition[edit] One commonly distinguishes between the relative error and the mean absolute percentage error absolute error. Given some value v and its approximation vapprox, the absolute error is ϵ = | v − v approx | , {\displaystyle \epsilon =|v-v_{\text{approx}}|\ ,} where the vertical bars denote the absolute value. If v ≠ 0 , {\displaystyle v\neq 0,} the relative error is η = ϵ | v | = | v − v approx v | = | 1 − v approx v | , {\displaystyle \eta ={\frac {\epsilon }{|v|}}=\left|{\frac {v-v_{\text{approx}}}{v}}\right|=\left|1-{\frac {v_{\text{approx}}}{v}}\right|,} and the percent error is δ = 100 % × η = 100 % × ϵ | v | = 100 % × | v − v approx v | . {\displaystyle \delta =100\%\times \eta =100\%\times {\frac {\epsilon }{|v|}}=100\%\times \left|{\frac {v-v_{\text{approx}}}{v}}\right|.} In words, the absolute error is the magnitude of the difference between the exact value and the approximation. The relative error is the absolute error divided by the magnitude of the exact value. The percent error is the relative error expressed in terms of per 100. Generalizations[edit] These definitions can be extended to the case when v {\displaystyle v} and v approx {\displaystyle v_{\text{approx}}} are n-dimensional vectors, by replacing the absolute value with an n-norm.[1] Examples[edit] As an example, if the
the quantity being forecast. The formula for the mean percentage error is
Mean Error
MPE = 100 % n ∑ t = 1
Mean Absolute Error
n a t − f t a t {\displaystyle {\text{MPE}}={\frac {100\%}{n}}\sum _{t=1}^{n}{\frac {a_{t}-f_{t}}{a_{t}}}} where at percent error definition is the actual value of the quantity being forecast, ft is the forecast, and n is the number of different times for which https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Approximation_error the variable is forecast. Because actual rather than absolute values of the forecast errors are used in the formula, positive and negative forecast errors can offset each other; as a result the formula can be used as a measure of the bias in the forecasts. A disadvantage of https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_percentage_error this measure is that it is undefined whenever a single actual value is zero. See also[edit] Percentage error Mean absolute percentage error Mean squared error Mean squared prediction error Minimum mean-square error Squared deviations Peak signal-to-noise ratio Root mean square deviation Errors and residuals in statistics References[edit] Khan, Aman U.; Hildreth, W. Bartley (2003). Case studies in public budgeting and financial management. New York, N.Y: Marcel Dekker. ISBN0-8247-0888-1. Waller, Derek J. (2003). Operations Management: A Supply Chain Approach. Cengage Learning Business Press. ISBN1-86152-803-5. Retrieved from "https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Mean_percentage_error&oldid=723517980" Categories: Summary statistics Navigation menu Personal tools Not logged inTalkContributionsCreate accountLog in Namespaces Article Talk Variants Views Read Edit View history More Search Navigation Main pageContentsFeatured contentCurrent eventsRandom articleDonate to WikipediaWikipedia store Interaction HelpAbout WikipediaCommunity portalRecent changesContact page Tools What links hereRelated changesUpload fileSpecial pagesPermanent linkPage informationWikidata itemCite this page Print/export Create a bookDownload as PD
may be challenged and removed. (December 2009) (Learn how and when to remove this template message) The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), also known as mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD), is a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_absolute_percentage_error method in statistics, for example in trend estimation. It usually expresses accuracy as a percentage, and is defined by the formula: M = 100 n ∑ t = 1 n | A t − F t http://groups.molbiosci.northwestern.edu/holmgren/Glossary/Definitions/Def-P/percent_error.html A t | , {\displaystyle {\mbox{M}}={\frac {100}{n}}\sum _{t=1}^{n}\left|{\frac {A_{t}-F_{t}}{A_{t}}}\right|,} where At is the actual value and Ft is the forecast value. The difference between At and Ft is divided by the Actual value At again. The percent error absolute value in this calculation is summed for every forecasted point in time and divided by the number of fitted pointsn. Multiplying by 100 makes it a percentage error. Although the concept of MAPE sounds very simple and convincing, it has major drawbacks in practical application [1] It cannot be used if there are zero values (which sometimes happens for example in demand data) because there would be a division by percent error calculation zero. For forecasts which are too low the percentage error cannot exceed 100%, but for forecasts which are too high there is no upper limit to the percentage error. When MAPE is used to compare the accuracy of prediction methods it is biased in that it will systematically select a method whose forecasts are too low. This little-known but serious issue can be overcome by using an accuracy measure based on the ratio of the predicted to actual value (called the Accuracy Ratio), this approach leads to superior statistical properties and leads to predictions which can be interpreted in terms of the geometric mean.[1] Contents 1 Alternative MAPE definitions 2 Issues 3 See also 4 External links 5 References Alternative MAPE definitions[edit] Problems can occur when calculating the MAPE value with a series of small denominators. A singularity problem of the form 'one divided by zero' and/or the creation of very large changes in the Absolute Percentage Error, caused by a small deviation in error, can occur. As an alternative, each actual value (At) of the series in the original formula can be replaced by the average of all actual values (Āt) of that series. This alternative is still being used for measuring the performance of models that forecast spot electricity prices.[2] Note
for: Glossary - word Glossary - def Textbooks Protocols Images Tools Forum PubMed Links Press Releases Biology Glossary search by EverythingBio.com A measure of how innaccurate a measurement is, standardized to how large the measurement is. Found by the formula (measured value-actual value)/actual value*100% A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O P Q R S T U V W X Y Z Genes / Proteins | Definitions | Models | Developmental Models | General Concepts | Contribute/Corrections | Links | Protocols | Home Website created and maintained by: Mark Lefers and the Holmgren Lab last updated: July 26, 2004