Error Calculation Wiki
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propagation of error) is the effect of variables' uncertainties (or errors, more specifically random errors) on the uncertainty of a function based on them. When the variables are the values of experimental measurements they have uncertainties due to measurement limitations (e.g., instrument precision) which propagate error calculation physics to the combination of variables in the function. The uncertainty u can be expressed in
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a number of ways. It may be defined by the absolute error Δx. Uncertainties can also be defined by the relative error (Δx)/x, standard error calculation which is usually written as a percentage. Most commonly, the uncertainty on a quantity is quantified in terms of the standard deviation, σ, the positive square root of variance, σ2. The value of a quantity and its error relative error calculation are then expressed as an interval x ± u. If the statistical probability distribution of the variable is known or can be assumed, it is possible to derive confidence limits to describe the region within which the true value of the variable may be found. For example, the 68% confidence limits for a one-dimensional variable belonging to a normal distribution are ± one standard deviation from the value, that is, there is approximately a 68% probability that
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the true value lies in the region x ± σ. If the uncertainties are correlated then covariance must be taken into account. Correlation can arise from two different sources. First, the measurement errors may be correlated. Second, when the underlying values are correlated across a population, the uncertainties in the group averages will be correlated.[1] Contents 1 Linear combinations 2 Non-linear combinations 2.1 Simplification 2.2 Example 2.3 Caveats and warnings 2.3.1 Reciprocal 2.3.2 Shifted reciprocal 3 Example formulas 4 Example calculations 4.1 Inverse tangent function 4.2 Resistance measurement 5 See also 6 References 7 Further reading 8 External links Linear combinations[edit] Let { f k ( x 1 , x 2 , … , x n ) } {\displaystyle \ ρ 5(x_ ρ 4,x_ ρ 3,\dots ,x_ ρ 2)\}} be a set of m functions which are linear combinations of n {\displaystyle n} variables x 1 , x 2 , … , x n {\displaystyle x_ σ 7,x_ σ 6,\dots ,x_ σ 5} with combination coefficients A k 1 , A k 2 , … , A k n , ( k = 1 … m ) {\displaystyle A_ σ 1,A_ σ 0,\dots ,A_ ρ 9,(k=1\dots m)} . f k = ∑ i n A k i x i or f = A x {\displaystyle f_ ρ 5=\sum _ ρ 4^ ρ 3A_ ρ 2x_ ρ
deviation (MSD) of an estimator (of a procedure for estimating an unobserved quantity) measures the average of the squares of the errors or deviations—that is, the difference between the estimator and what is estimated. MSE is experimental error calculation a risk function, corresponding to the expected value of the squared error loss or percentage error calculation quadratic loss. The difference occurs because of randomness or because the estimator doesn't account for information that could produce a more
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accurate estimate.[1] The MSE is a measure of the quality of an estimator—it is always non-negative, and values closer to zero are better. The MSE is the second moment (about the origin) of the error, and https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Propagation_of_uncertainty thus incorporates both the variance of the estimator and its bias. For an unbiased estimator, the MSE is the variance of the estimator. Like the variance, MSE has the same units of measurement as the square of the quantity being estimated. In an analogy to standard deviation, taking the square root of MSE yields the root-mean-square error or root-mean-square deviation (RMSE or RMSD), which has the same units as the quantity being https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_squared_error estimated; for an unbiased estimator, the RMSE is the square root of the variance, known as the standard deviation. Contents 1 Definition and basic properties 1.1 Predictor 1.2 Estimator 1.2.1 Proof of variance and bias relationship 2 Regression 3 Examples 3.1 Mean 3.2 Variance 3.3 Gaussian distribution 4 Interpretation 5 Applications 6 Loss function 6.1 Criticism 7 See also 8 Notes 9 References Definition and basic properties[edit] The MSE assesses the quality of an estimator (i.e., a mathematical function mapping a sample of data to a parameter of the population from which the data is sampled) or a predictor (i.e., a function mapping arbitrary inputs to a sample of values of some random variable). Definition of an MSE differs according to whether one is describing an estimator or a predictor. Predictor[edit] If Y ^ {\displaystyle {\hat Saved in parser cache with key enwiki:pcache:idhash:201816-0!*!0!!en!*!*!math=5 and timestamp 20161007125802 and revision id 741744824 9}} is a vector of n {\displaystyle n} predictions, and Y {\displaystyle Y} is the vector of observed values corresponding to the inputs to the function which generated the predictions, then the MSE of the predictor can be estimated by MSE = 1 n ∑ i = 1 n ( Y i ^ − Y i ) 2 {\displaystyle \operatorname Saved in parse
article by introducing more precise citations. (September 2016) (Learn how and when to remove this template message) Part of a series on Statistics Regression analysis Models Linear regression Simple https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Errors_and_residuals regression Ordinary least squares Polynomial regression General linear model Generalized linear model Discrete choice Logistic regression Multinomial logit Mixed logit Probit Multinomial probit Ordered logit Ordered probit Poisson Multilevel model Fixed https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mean_absolute_percentage_error effects Random effects Mixed model Nonlinear regression Nonparametric Semiparametric Robust Quantile Isotonic Principal components Least angle Local Segmented Errors-in-variables Estimation Least squares Ordinary least squares Linear (math) Partial Total Generalized Weighted error calculation Non-linear Non-negative Iteratively reweighted Ridge regression Least absolute deviations Bayesian Bayesian multivariate Background Regression model validation Mean and predicted response Errors and residuals Goodness of fit Studentized residual Gauss–Markov theorem Statistics portal v t e For a broader coverage related to this topic, see Deviation. In statistics and optimization, errors and residuals are two closely related and easily confused measures of the deviation error calculation wiki of an observed value of an element of a statistical sample from its "theoretical value". The error (or disturbance) of an observed value is the deviation of the observed value from the (unobservable) true value of a quantity of interest (for example, a population mean), and the residual of an observed value is the difference between the observed value and the estimated value of the quantity of interest (for example, a sample mean). The distinction is most important in regression analysis, where the concepts are sometimes called the regression errors and regression residuals and where they lead to the concept of studentized residuals. Contents 1 Introduction 2 In univariate distributions 2.1 Remark 3 Regressions 4 Other uses of the word "error" in statistics 5 See also 6 References Introduction[edit] Suppose there is a series of observations from a univariate distribution and we want to estimate the mean of that distribution (the so-called location model). In this case, the errors are the deviations of the observations from the population mean, while the residuals are the deviations of the observations from the sample mean. A statistical error
may be challenged and removed. (December 2009) (Learn how and when to remove this template message) The mean absolute percentage error (MAPE), also known as mean absolute percentage deviation (MAPD), is a measure of prediction accuracy of a forecasting method in statistics, for example in trend estimation. It usually expresses accuracy as a percentage, and is defined by the formula: M = 100 n ∑ t = 1 n | A t − F t A t | , {\displaystyle {\mbox{M}}={\frac {100}{n}}\sum _{t=1}^{n}\left|{\frac {A_{t}-F_{t}}{A_{t}}}\right|,} where At is the actual value and Ft is the forecast value. The difference between At and Ft is divided by the Actual value At again. The absolute value in this calculation is summed for every forecasted point in time and divided by the number of fitted pointsn. Multiplying by 100 makes it a percentage error. Although the concept of MAPE sounds very simple and convincing, it has major drawbacks in practical application [1] It cannot be used if there are zero values (which sometimes happens for example in demand data) because there would be a division by zero. For forecasts which are too low the percentage error cannot exceed 100%, but for forecasts which are too high there is no upper limit to the percentage error. When MAPE is used to compare the accuracy of prediction methods it is biased in that it will systematically select a method whose forecasts are too low. This little-known but serious issue can be overcome by using an accuracy measure based on the ratio of the predicted to actual value (called the Accuracy Ratio), this approach leads to superior statistical properties and leads to predictions which can be interpreted in terms of the geometric mean.[1] Contents 1 Alternative MAPE definitions 2 Issues 3 See also 4 External links 5 References Alternative MAPE definitions[edit] Problems can occur when calculating the MAPE value with a series of small denominators. A singularity problem of the form 'one divided by zero' and/or the creation of very large changes in the Absolute Percentage Error, caused by a small deviation in error, can occur. As an alternative, each actual value (At