Margin Of Error 2008 Election
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Degree Of Error Formula
Staff Who Pays for Politifact Suggest a Fact Check Advertise Is McCain within margin of error? By Alexander Lane on Friday, October 31st, 2008 at 3:48 p.m. SUMMARY: McCain claims he's "within the margin of error," but
Margin Of Error Vs Confidence Level
that's true only for the Fox poll. Sen. John McCain sounded upbeat in a Halloween morning interview on CNBC. But was the enthusiasm just a mask? We can't be sure. But we can check some data McCain cited to justify his optimism. "I'm very optimistic, and we're coming from behind," McCain told anchor Larry Kudlow in the Oct. 31, 2008, interview. "I'm the underdog. There's where we always like to be. But we are within the margin of error represents quizlet the margin of error, my friends. And I'm very happy where we are." McCain was clearly talking about national polls, which are not necessarily indicative of Electoral College results. Nevertheless, only four presidents have won the election without winning the national popular vote — John Quincy Adams in 1824, Rutherford B. Hayes in 1876, Benjamin Harrison in 1888 and George W. Bush in 2000. So we looked at every national poll we could find from the past two days to see if McCain really is within the margin of error. Five polls were released the same morning McCain was speaking. Rasmussen's daily tracking poll showed Obama up 51 to 47 with a margin of error ofplus or minus2 percentage points. The Diageo/Hotline tracking poll had Obama up 48 to 41 with a margin of error of 3.3 percent. The Reuters/C-SPAN/Zogby poll showed Obama up 50 to 43 with a margin of error of 2.9 percentage points. Research 2000/Daily Kos had Obama up 51-45 with a 3-point margin of error. And an Associated Press-Yahoo News poll showed Obama up 51 to 43 with a margin of error of 3 percentage points. McCain was not within the margin of error in any of those five. But they all came out the morning McCain spoke. So to be fair, let's look at the polls released the pre
25, 2009 Perils of Polling in Election ’08 by Scott Keeter, Jocelyn Kiley, Leah Christian and Michael Dimock, Pew Research Center for
Margin Of Error Presidential Polls
the People & the Press The analysis of total survey polls margin of error error has evolved over many decades to consider a wide variety of potential threats, including concerns margin of error example about the contribution of both bias and variance, and an attention to errors of both observation and non-observation (Groves 1989). The validity of public opinion http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/article/2008/oct/31/mccain-margin-error/ polling in the presidential election of 2008 was thought to be seriously imperiled by a wide range of these potential errors. Among these were coverage error due to the growth of the wireless-only population, nonresponse error potentially caused by differential nonresponse among Republicans and racially conservative voters, and measurement error potentially http://www.pewresearch.org/2009/06/25/perils-of-polling-in-election-08/ resulting from racially-related understatement of support for the Republican candidate and greater-than-usual difficulties in forecasting turnout and identifying likely voters. Despite these obstacles, polls performed very well, with 8 of 17 national polls predicting the final margin in the presidential election within one percentage point and most of the others coming within three points. Both at the national and state levels, the accuracy of the polls matched or exceeded that of 2004, which was itself a good year for the polls. The performance of election polls is no mere trophy for the polling community, for the credibility of the entire survey research profession depends to a great degree on how election polls match the objective standard of election outcomes. The consequences of a poor performance were dramatically demonstrated in the reaction to the primary polls' inaccurate prediction that Barack Obama would win in New Hampshire, portrayed as one of polling's great fail
Vegas Smith's World HS Football Newsletter signup 6 Comments ELECTION2008: Margin of error is polls’ fineprint If it’s big enough — the result of a small sample — a survey’s results may not be what theyseem Chris Morris By J. Patrick Coolican Tuesday, Oct. 14, https://lasvegassun.com/news/2008/oct/14/margin-error-polls-fine-print/ 2008 | 2 a.m. Reader poll If I see my candidate ranks lower in the polls: http://www.gallup.com/poll/111703/final-presidential-estimate-obama-55-mccain-44.aspx It has no effect on my vote. It makes me want to work harder for my candidate. I might consider changing my vote. I wouldn't bother to vote. View results Doing the math To get the margin of error of a poll, divide .98 by the square root of the poll’s sample size. Based on a poll conducted by Mason-Dixon, a Review-Journal headline Monday stated, of error “Poll gives big lead to Heller.” Mason-Dixon counted just 221 registered voters. That gives that poll a plus/minus margin of error of 7 percentage points. Using the formula, had 1,221 registered voters been polled, the margin of error would have been less than 3 percentage points. Recent polls Gallup/USA Today poll, published Monday: Obama beating McCain 51-44 among registered voters. 1,269 adults, +/- 3 percentage points Marist College Institute for Public Opinion poll, published Monday: Ohio: Obama 49, McCain 45; 771 likely margin of error voters, margin of error +/- 3.5% Pennsylvania: Obama 53, McCain 41; 757 likely voters with leaners, margin of error +/- 3.5% Why it matters Political scientists say polls can affect public opinion while influencing the decisions of potential campaign donors, so a larger sample is important for the sake of fairness. Past polling Mason-Dixon conducted a poll — taken Jan. 14 to 16 — on the eve of the Nevada Democratic caucus — on Jan. 19 — that had a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points (500 likely Democratic caucus attendees). Clinton: Poll - 41; Caucus results - 50.77 Obama: Poll - 32; Caucus results - 45.12 Edwards: Poll - 14; Caucus results - 3.74 Other:Poll - 13; Caucus results - 0.36 Election 2008 Candidates, issues and voting information Sun Topics Primary Election 2008 Beyond the Sun Las Vegas Review-Journal: Poll gives big lead to Heller (10-13-2008) Mason Dixon Polling & Research Inc. The headline couldn’t be more clear: “Poll gives big lead to Heller.” Indeed, a Las Vegas Review-Journal poll showed voters in the 2nd Congressional District prefer Rep. Dean Heller to former higher education Regent Jill Derby 51 percent to 38 percent. The problem with the poll, and thus the headline, could be found in the fine print. Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, the company commissioned to gauge the opinion of the voting public, received responses from just 221 registered voters, giving the poll a margin of error of plus
Africa U.S. Economy Education Politics Well-Being Election 2016 Business B2B Employee Engagement Customer Engagement Financial Services Entrepreneurship Healthcare Hospitality Leadership Manufacturing Marketplace Retail Strengths Client Services Strategic Consulting Employee Engagement Customer Engagement Supplier Engagement B2B Leadership & Coaching Strengths-Based Culture Behavioral Economics Entrepreneurship Learning & Development Analytics-Based Hiring Organizational Identity Government Well-Being Education Gallup-Purdue Index K-12 Higher Education Global Analytics Gallup Panel World Poll U.S. Daily Tracking Survey Research Advanced Analytics Online Products Strengths Clifton StrengthsFinder High-Performance Management Course Strengths Coaching Courses Engagement Q12 Employee Engagement Center Faith Member Engagement Schools & Universities Gallup Student Poll Strengths Courses for Educators StrengthsQuest U.S. & World Poll Gallup Analytics Entrepreneurship Entrepreneurial Profile 10 Coaching Entrepreneurial Talents Course Books & Merchandise Gallup Press Gallup Store Politics November 3, 2008 Print Share Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on LinkedIn CloseShare this StoryShare this article with friends.Share LinkShare: Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share on LinkedIn Final Presidential Estimate: Obama 55%, McCain 44% by Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia Saad Independents break for Obama, boosting Obama's broad Democratic base PRINCETON, NJ -- The final Gallup 2008 pre-election poll -- based on Oct. 31-Nov. 2 Gallup Poll Daily tracking -- shows Barack Obama with a 53% to 42% advantage over John McCain among likely voters. When undecided voters are allocated proportionately to the two candidates to better approximate the actual vote, the estimate becomes 55% for Obama to 44% for McCain. The trend data clearly show Obama ending the campaign with an upward movement in support, with eight to 11 percentage point leads among likely voters in Gallup's last four reports of data extending back to Oct. 28. Obama's final leads among both registered voters and likely voters are the largest of the campaign. Gallup's final estimate is based on Gallup's traditional likely voter model, and assumes an estimated turnout of 64% of the voting age population, an increase over 2004. (Gallup estimates voter turnout from the results of key voter turnout questions, using a model that compares how respondents' answers to these questions have related, historically, to actual turnout.) This year's higher turnout estimate is fueled by a surge in early