Did S&p Make A 2 Trillion Error
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TrillionError August 7, 2011 by Donald In the final hours before Friday's historic downgrade, Standard & Poors gave Treasury an advance copy of its report. Amazingly, that report contained a $2 trillion error https://dmarron.com/2011/08/07/sps-2-trillion-error/ in its calculations of U.S. deficits and debt over the next decade. Here http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2011/08/sp-obama-treasurys-2-trillion-error-argument-is-irrelevant/ are four things you should know about it. 1. Treasury hoped that S&P would change its decision in light of the error, but S&P shrugged it off as not material. In a blog post, Acting Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy John Bellows described what happened when the error was discovered: After Treasury pointed out what does this error – a basic math error of significant consequence – S&P still chose to proceed with their flawed judgment by simply changing their principal rationale for their credit rating decision from an economic one to a political one. On Saturday morning, S&P issued a clarification / rebuttal acknowledging the error, but downplaying its importance: The primary focus [of our analysis] remained on the current level of debt, what does p the trajectory of debt as a share of the economy, and the lack of apparent willingness of elected officials as a group to deal with the U.S. medium term fiscal outlook. None of these key factors was meaningfully affected by the assumption revisions to the assumed growth of discretionary outlays and thus had no impact on the rating decision. 2. Despite S&P's claim, $2 trillion would "meaningfully affect" "the trajectory of debt as a share of the economy." It's own revised calculations show net general government debt hitting 85% of gross domestic product in 2021 instead of 93%. That's a big difference. The 85% figure is still uncomfortably high and may well not deserve a AAA rating. But S&P was too dismissive in its clarification. 3. The error is understandable but remarkably sloppy for such an important analysis. The source of the error is painfully familiar to anyone who deals with U.S. budget projections. S&P's analysts didn't use the right measuring stick -- i.e., the right budget baseline -- when analyzing the effects of the recently-enacted Budget Control Act. In one sense, it's easy to see how this error happened. Budget discussions are now hopelessly confused by a profusion of different ba
Friday the United States lost its coveted AAA credit rating. Credit rating agency Standard & Poor’s downgraded the nation’s rating for the first time since the U.S. won the top ranking in 1917. 18 countries now have a better credit rating than the US. In response to the historic downgrade, the Obama Treasury released a statement claiming S&P made a $2 trillion mistake. Today the S&P fired back saying treasury's argument "is irrelevant." Zero Hedge reported, via Free Republic: Yesterday we showed that when it comes to projections, the CBO's own track record makes S&P shine in comparison. Apparently this fact was not lost on S&P itself which sent out a note explaining which "clarified assumption used on discretionary spending growth." Basically, as S&P says, "Our ratings are determined primarily using a 3-5 year time horizon. In the near term horizon, by 2015, the U.S. net general government debt with the new assumptions were projected to be $14.5 trillion (79% of 2015 GDP) versus $14.7 trillion (81% of 2015 GDP) with the initial assumption – a difference of $345 billion." So yes, while by 2021 the difference could be $2.1 trillion based on the CBO's current baseline model, the truth is that the CBO's own estimate on revenue and spending projections in a decade will likely have a +/- $10 trillion margin of error. So does anyone really care? In essence all S&P did was point out what Zero Hedge and others have been saying: that a "deficit cutting" plan which is massively back end loaded and has about $20 billion in cuts over the next year is absolutely without credit or merit. And the disingenuity on the side of Treasury to believe that someone would think otherwise is simply appalling. That said, while the markets look set to crash very shortly, the overabundance of catalysts means that it will be more than just the downgrade that throws risk into a tailspin. Although prepare for an all out onslaught by the Treasury on S&P as a scapegoat. After all in USSAA(negative outlook) it is never our fault: it is always someone else's. Filed Under: Uncategorized Get news like this in your Facebook News Feed, Gateway Pundit Commenting Policy Please adhere to our commenting policy to avoid being banned. As a privately owned website, we reserve the right to remove any comment and ban any user at any time. Comments that contain spam, advertising, vulgarity, threats of violence, racism, anti-Semitism, or personal or abusive attacks on other users may be removed and result in a ban. Facebook Comments Disqus Comments HadEnough Whats a few trillion $$ among a few Odumbo friends………