Error In Exit ._run_exitfuncs
methodology information on the National Election Pool (NEP) website (for states and the national survey) provides much more guidance on exit poll sampling error, but some of it may be a bit “mysterious.” Let me take this opportunity to discuss sampling error in the context of the exit polls. Sampling Error Generally Sampling error – the potential variation due to measuring a sample rather than the entire population – is commonly referred to as the “margin of error.” The difference between two percentages is deemed “statistically significant” if it is greater than the reported “plus or minus” margin. As such, most people assume that statistical significance is a black or white concept, that a finding is either significant or it isn’t. That’s not quite right. Sampling error is really more of a grey concept -- it’s all about probabilities. Whether you consider a finding “significant” or not depends on how certain you want to be, so in a sense, statistical significance is in the eye of the beholder. The more confident you need to be (or in statistical terms, the greater the “confidence level” assumed), the wider the range of potential sampling error. I discussed this idea in greater length in one of my first posts on this site back in September. The American Statistical Society also has a well written pamphlet on sampling error available for download. The important thing to remember is that the margin of error (called a “confidence interval” by statisticians) is generally a function three things, the degree of confidence required, the sample size and the percentage being estimated. Thus, sampling error will DECREASE as... The sample size (or number of interviews) gets bigger; The percentage estimated approaches 0% or 100% or The need to be certain about the result (e.g. the “confidence level”) gets smaller. All of the above applies to simple r
the UK edition switch to the US edition switch to the AU edition International switch to the UK edition switch to the US edition switch to the Australia edition The Guardian home › opinion columnists home UK world sport football opinion selected culture business lifestyle fashion environment tech travel browse all sections close Wisconsin recall vote Opinion Outraged that the Wisconsin exit polls could be so wrong? Harry J Enten Then you need to know that exits are great at telling us why people voted the way they did. How they voted, not so much Mayor Tom Barrett, before his defeat in the Wisconsin recall election: maybe he believed the exit polls. Photograph: John Gress/Reuters http://www.mysterypollster.com/main/2004/12/what_is_the_sam.html Wednesday 6 June 2012 23.24 BST Last modified on Wednesday 11 May 2016 23.25 BST Share on Facebook Share on Twitter Share via Email Share on LinkedIn Share on Google+ Share on WhatsApp Share on Messenger There were about ten minutes Tuesday night when I was seriously excited. Like every other excited election junkie, I was ready to track a potentially close Wisconsin recall election as indicated by the exit polls. But my hopes were soon dashed when https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2012/jun/06/outraged-wisconsin-exit-polls-so-wrong the actual votes were counted. The exit polls results were quickly mocked for their inaccuracy. How could the exits be so wrong, people wondered? There were about 100 tweets in my Twitter feeds from very smart people wondering why the networks, specifically CNN, had been touting such bad information. The fact that Wolf Blitzer's reporting on the exits gave way to Piers Morgan's not-quite-hilariously awful jubilee coverage only added to the misery. But the question I have is: where have all of these people who think that exit polls are accurate measures been the last six months, let alone 20 years? On any number of occasions, exit polls underestimated Rick Santorum's vote in this 2012 Republican primary season. They predicted him to finish third in Iowa and Mississippi, for example – states where he actually won. Exit polls projected John Kerry to win the 2004 election. You may have heard he lost. The bias in his direction was about 2.5 percentage points. Thus, a 51%-48% Kerry victory became a 50.7%-48.3% Bush triumph. Anyone remember 2000 and Al Gore in Florida? The same 2.5-point Democratic bias occurred in 1992, but Bill Clinton easily took the election, so no one actually cared. The list goes on and on. People should know better than to believe that early exit polls are more accurate than pre-election polls. You might w
Previous topic abc - Abstract Base Classes Next topic contextlib - Context manager utilities This Page Show Source Quick http://bioportal.weizmann.ac.il/course/python/PyMOTW/PyMOTW/docs/atexit/index.html search Enter search terms or a module, class or function name. atexit - Call functions when a program is closing down¶ Purpose:Register function(s) to be called when a program is closing down. Python Version:2.1.3 and later The atexit module provides a simple interface to register functions to be called when a program closes down normally. error in The sys module also provides a hook, sys.exitfunc, but only one function can be registered there. The atexit registry can be used by multiple modules and libraries simultaneously. Examples¶ A simple example of registering a function via atexit.register() looks like: import atexit def all_done(): print 'all_done()' print 'Registering' atexit.register(all_done) print 'Registered' Since the program doesn't do error in exit anything else, all_done() is called right away: $ python atexit_simple.py Registering Registered all_done() It is also possible to register more than one function, and to pass arguments. That can be useful to cleanly disconnect from databases, remove temporary files, etc. Since it is possible to pass arguments to the registered functions, we don't even need to keep a separate list of things to clean up - we can just register a clean up function more than once. import atexit def my_cleanup(name): print 'my_cleanup(%s)' % name atexit.register(my_cleanup, 'first') atexit.register(my_cleanup, 'second') atexit.register(my_cleanup, 'third') Notice that order in which the exit functions are called is the reverse of the order they are registered. This allows modules to be cleaned up in the reverse order from which they are imported (and therefore register their atexit functions), which should reduce dependency conflicts. $ python atexit_multiple.py my_cleanup(third) my_cleanup(second) my_cleanup(first) When are atexit functions not called?¶ The callbacks registered with atexit are not invoked if: the program dies because of a signa
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